Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecasts, Sees $140 Brent Risk

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts as geopolitical tensions increase the risk of supply disruptions, outlining a scenario in which Brent crude could reach $140 a barrel in 2027.

The bank increased its December 2026 Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, while lifting its forecast for US West Texas Intermediate crude to $94 from $81.

However, the $140 figure is an upside scenario, not Goldman’s central forecast. Its revised base-case estimate puts average Brent prices at $88 a barrel in 2027, up from $80 previously.

The forecasts, issued on Sunday, November 1, reflect concerns that disruptions to Gulf production, shipping and oil infrastructure could keep energy markets under pressure.

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Goldman Sachs’ Updated Oil Price Forecasts

The revisions increase both the bank’s year-end estimates and its average forecasts for next year.

Benchmark and period	Previous forecast	Revised forecast	Increase
Brent, December 2026	$90 a barrel	$105 a barrel	$15
WTI, December 2026	$81 a barrel	$94 a barrel	$13
Brent, 2027 average	$80 a barrel	$88 a barrel	$8
WTI, 2027 average	$73 a barrel	$78 a barrel	$5

Calculated from those figures, the December Brent forecast rises by approximately 16.7%, while the 2027 average Brent forecast increases by 10%.

The distinction between a December forecast and a full-year average is important. They describe different periods and should not be treated as interchangeable price targets.

What Would Push Brent to $140 a Barrel?

Goldman’s higher-price scenario depends on a prolonged reduction in Gulf oil production.

Under that scenario, average Gulf output in 2027 would remain 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average. Brent could then reach $140 a barrel and average approximately $130 across 2027.

This represents a substantially more disruptive outcome than the bank’s central forecast.

Scenario	Brent price outlook	Interpretation
December 2026 forecast	$105 a barrel	Revised year-end estimate
Base-case 2027 forecast	$88 a barrel on average	Central annual projection
Prolonged Gulf supply-disruption scenario	Around $130 annual average; could reach $140	Conditional higher-price outcome

The $140 figure is therefore neither a guaranteed price nor Goldman’s expected average for next year. It describes what could happen if the specified production shortfall persists.

Why Goldman Expects a Higher Oil Risk Premium

Goldman expects markets to attach a larger premium to the possibility of supply disruption.

A risk premium reflects what buyers are willing to pay because future availability is uncertain. Prices can rise on concerns about interrupted production or deliveries before the full extent of any shortage becomes clear.

The bank identified three potential drivers of further price increases:

More intense attacks on shipping.
Damage to oil infrastructure.
A geopolitical risk premium that lasts longer than expected.

Its assessment also reflects the duration of previous major supply shocks and doubts among market participants about the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough.

Oil Prices Can Fall Even as Forecasts Rise

Brent initially slipped more than 1% to $111.84 a barrel on Monday, according to the Reuters report, as Iranian and Qatari officials continued talks aimed at securing a deal to end the US-Israeli war with Iran.

That was an intraday observation, rather than a closing price or a live quotation.

The decline followed a strong October, when concerns about renewed escalation helped push Brent to its highest level in six months.

There is no necessary contradiction between a daily price decline and a higher forecast. Markets react continuously to new developments, while forecasts estimate prices over a future period.

Diplomatic progress can reduce the immediate risk premium even when analysts remain concerned about longer-term supply vulnerabilities.

The Revised Base Case Still Allows Prices to Ease

Although Goldman raised its forecasts, its central projection still puts average Brent prices in 2027 below the revised December estimate.

The bank’s numbers therefore point to two ideas at once: near-term supply risks have increased, but prices could moderate over time under its central assumptions.

Goldman’s earlier published outlook similarly expected prices to ease as Middle Eastern supply recovered, while warning that renewed escalation could prolong high prices. The latest forecasts raise the starting point and the expected annual average.

A forecast can consequently become more expensive without implying that prices will rise continuously.

Why Gulf Production Matters to the Outlook

The key condition in Goldman’s upside scenario is a production shortfall measured against the Gulf’s 2025 average.

That reference point matters. The scenario does not simply assume a one-day disruption or a short-lived interruption to an individual shipment. It describes lower average production sustained across 2027.

Persistent losses are harder for a market to absorb than temporary interruptions. Their eventual price effect would depend on several factors, including alternative supply, inventories, consumption and the length of the disruption.

The bank also highlighted the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts as sources of uncertainty, with the timing and location of potential interruptions difficult to predict.

What Higher Crude Prices Could Mean for Consumers

Sustained increases in crude prices can put pressure on fuel costs and on businesses that rely heavily on transport or petroleum-based inputs.

However, retail petrol and diesel prices do not move in a fixed, immediate relationship with Brent.

Other factors include:

Refined-product prices.
Exchange rates.
Freight and insurance costs.
Taxes and levies.
Inventory and purchasing schedules.
Local pricing arrangements.

For readers in Kenya, a higher Brent forecast should therefore not be read as a direct prediction of the next pump-price adjustment.

The broader concern is that prolonged increases in international energy costs could raise import expenses and operating costs. The size and timing of any local effect would depend on those additional factors.

What Markets Will Watch Next

The most important developments will be those that change either actual supply or expectations about its reliability.

These include progress in diplomatic talks, the security of shipping routes, the condition of oil infrastructure and evidence of production recovery or further losses.

Market participants will also watch whether other producers can offset disruptions and whether higher prices weaken demand.

Goldman’s forecasts illustrate how sharply the outlook can differ between a central case and a prolonged supply shock. The bank’s $88 average Brent forecast for 2027 remains the main projection, while $140 represents a conditional risk scenario.