Aramco Q4 profit is forecast at nearly $25 billion, reflecting resilience despite softer crude prices. According to AlJazira Capital, net income after minority interest is expected to reach SAR 91.9 billion, equivalent to $24.5 billion.
The projection signals a 5.9 percent year-on-year increase. However, it marks a 5.5 percent quarter-on-quarter decline, highlighting the impact of lower oil prices during the final quarter of 2025.
Aramco Q4 Profit and Revenue Outlook
Revenue is projected at SAR 406.9 billion, down 5.1 percent year-on-year and 2.7 percent quarter-on-quarter. Analysts attribute the sequential decline mainly to a 7.4 percent drop in crude oil prices during the period.
Despite this, production increased by 4.3 percent, equivalent to an additional 400,000 barrels per day. That production boost helped cushion earnings.
Upstream revenue is expected to decline 7.5 percent quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, downstream revenue could rise by 1 percent due to improved refining margins. Chemical margins, however, remain under pressure.
Saudi Aramco is scheduled to release its full-year 2025 results on March 10.
Oil Price Assumptions for 2026
Looking ahead, analysts forecast marginal revenue growth of 0.5 percent year-on-year in 2026, reaching SAR 1.7 trillion. Net income is expected to remain broadly flat at SAR 371 billion.
The outlook assumes an average oil price of $62.4 per barrel in 2026. That represents an 8 percent year-on-year decline.
However, total hydrocarbon production is projected to rise to 13.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Crude output alone is expected to reach 10.1 million barrels per day, up 6.7 percent year-on-year.
Higher production levels could partially offset weaker pricing conditions.
Market Rating and Target Price
AlJazira Capital has assigned an “Overweight” rating to the stock. The brokerage set a target price of SAR 29.6 per share.
The Aramco Q4 profit forecast reinforces the company’s position as one of the world’s most profitable energy producers, even in a moderating oil price environment.
For energy markets across Africa and the Middle East, Aramco’s performance remains a key barometer of global demand and pricing trends.
