Saudi Arabia faces rising fiscal risks as oil prices fall and the government invests heavily in Vision 2030 projects. Fitch Ratings warns that the nation’s fiscal deficit could reach 5.3% of GDP in 2025, more than double earlier projections. Lower oil revenues and large Vision 2030 spending drive this challenge.
Non-oil revenues remain strong, supported by a diversified economy and careful budgeting. The government plans to strengthen its fiscal position by 2026 through moderate spending cuts, 5.1% expected revenue growth, and continued resilience in non-oil sectors.
Flagship projects like NEOM play a key role in the investment strategy, aiming to diversify the economy and reduce oil dependence. Fitch notes that Saudi Arabia still faces vulnerability to oil market fluctuations, despite efforts to create sustainable revenue sources.
